I’m Certainly Uncertain about Being Certain

By guest columnist Tom Hayes

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." - H.L. Mencken

It is amazing how, when you put an individual in front of a group of people, they often assume a level of expertise in fields beyond their competency. As an agency owner and marketing professional, I find it absurd that the audience thinks I am the guy who has all the definitive answers.

I have been asked:

Q: When will the economy turn around? 
A: Next Tuesday.

Q: What would it cost to have every child in Minnesota have a good self image? 
A: One half of the cost of world peace.

Q: How can I market my product and spend the least amount of money?
A: Buy a googly, inflatable, stick man and put it outside your store on a windy day.

The comfort and temptation of certainty.
The problem is people want clear definitive answers where none can reasonably be found. It gives them comfort. It gives them a bite-sized factoid that they can rely on to help get them through their day. Also, speakers are tempted to revel in the authority a podium gives them. Wouldn’t everyone love to be thought of as the expert on all things large and small? Add to that temptation, the ability to make statements in a strong, authoritative voice and you have a recipe for disaster.

Watch out for that truck!
Wanting certainty is just as problematic as doling it out. An extreme example of this is the time I was meeting with a company that sold car washer fluid. I met with them and put forth some suggestions as to how they might better market their product. After completing my spiel, the president of the company asked, “Are you certain these will work?” To which I replied, “No. But I have decades of experience and results that would say I know what I am doing.” That wasn’t good enough for the president. He said, “If this campaign doesn’t work, I’m going to have you run over by a truck.” Needless to say that his need for certainty and my need to save my skin were in conflict, so it was our last meeting.

How to misuse a lamppost.
In marketing there are all sorts of ways in which certainty is pursued. Classically, research, and the statistics it creates, has been used to uncover the true, unquestionable views, tastes and preferences of consumers. But as Andrew Lang said, “Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination.” The game is simple. Start with the premise that you are certain is right. Find a fifty-pound bag of research that supports it. Then start every other sentence with, “But the research proves… .” Soon this same, lame, way of thinking will transmogrify into, “But AI says… .” But I don’t think this will become prevalent until AI stops creating human hands with six fingers.

Certain dangers
The problem with certainty is that it is so often wrong. We live in a probabilistic world in which we all must make complex choices as to what is most likely to be correct. In business in general and marketing in particular, we must learn to treat certainty, those who spout it and those who long for it with great suspicion.

Consider the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Have you ever noticed how real experts tend to qualify their statements because they honor the complexity of their field? Yet those who are not experts will make grand pronouncements about a subject they really know very little about. That’s the Dunning-Kruger effect: the more confident you are about a statement in a field in which you are not an expert, the more ignorant you are likely to be.

Take the uncertain path
The world seems to venerate those who are bold and brash throwing out certainties like candy at a Halloween parade. But businesses need to deal with the messy, sloppy, confusing realities of this world if we ever hope to succeed. So we need to be just as bold and just as brash about the uncertainties of what we say. We need to recognise the risks when we state the opportunities. We need to shine some light on the certainties tossed about by others. We need to not expect others to be certain when no certainty is possible. And if we do all this, I am certain we will do better.

About Tom Hayes
Tom and his team at Riley Hayes have been Creating with Joy since 1991. Tom is also a speaker and coauthor of Relevance: Matter More. Connect with Tom at thayes@rileyhayes.com. 

Views expressed by guest columnist reflect those of the author and not the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce.