Immigration became the leading component of population growth in Minnesota this decade

Minnesota experienced significant shifts in immigration patterns this decade. Following a sharp decline in 2020 and 2021 due to the pandemic, international migration rebounded strongly in subsequent years. Recent U.S. Census Bureau data reveals a notable surge in international migration to Minnesota, with nearly 30,000 new arrivals recorded between July 2023 and July 2024—two and a half times the average annual levels of the previous decade. From 2020 to 2024, over 81,000 new Americans moved to Minnesota, making immigration the primary driver of population change and contributing to 94% of the state’s net growth during this period.

International migration has become increasingly important over time as fertility rates decline and net domestic migration losses continue to pile up.

This trend is not unique to Minnesota. In fact, twenty states had negative natural population growth (with more deaths than births) so far this decade, making them entirely dependent on migration to grow population. 

While Minnesota still maintains positive natural growth, this relative advantage does not change the fact that natural population growth is falling over time. The Minnesota State Demographic Center projects that Minnesota will have more deaths than births by 2065.

What does this mean for Minnesota’s economy? 

Minnesota’s November Budget and Economic Forecast illustrates how these long-term population trends are impacting the state’s near-term economic and fiscal outlook. 

The report, which forecasts a $5.1 billion budget deficit in the 2028-29 biennium, states: 

“Payroll employment growth is expected to slow further to an average 
of 0.3 percent annually from 2025 to 2029, or approximately 10,200 jobs annually. 
This subdued employment trajectory reflects the constraints of an aging workforce and lower birth rates.”

It goes on to say:

“Aging and lower birth rates will continue to put downward 
pressure on labor force growth in the coming years. Whether immigration
 will be enough to counter these trends remains to be seen.” 

Minnesota ranks 41st in GDP growth, 40th in labor force growth and 37th in job growth so far this decade. Immigration remains one of the key levers to improve the state’s economic outlook going forward. 

The Minnesota Chamber’s Grow Minnesota! program will release a report in February further examining how immigration trends have changed in the first years of this decade and looks ahead to how Minnesota can leverage immigration as strength for future economic growth.